Articles | 2026-09-19

The Economic Cost of Climate Change: A VAR Model Analysis for Tunisia

Zaied Maher
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026) Published: 2026-09-19

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to the world's economies, particularly those of developing countries. In Tunisia, a country with an arid and semi-arid climate, the effects of climatic variations are increasingly felt in the agricultural sector, the mainstay of the national economy.
This research aims to empirically analyze the dynamic relationships between climate variables (temperature and precipitation), agriculture and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 2000-2024. The aim is to measure the impact of climate change on agricultural production and its repercussions on GDP.
The analysis is based on the estimation of a VAR (vector autoregressive) model, enabling the interactions between the time series concerned to be assessed. The data used cover the years 2000 to 2024, and include GDP growth rate, mean annual temperature, rainfall levels, cereal yields and agricultural investment.
The results show that rising temperatures and irregularly falling rainfall are having a significant negative impact on agricultural production. This agricultural degradation directly affects economic growth, particularly in rural areas..
The period 2000-2024 is characterized by the Tunisian agricultural sector's growing vulnerability to climate change. The urgent integration of climate issues into public policy is essential to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.

Keywords

Climate change, agriculture, economic growth, VAR model, Tunisia

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How to Cite

Maher, Z. (2026). The Economic Cost of Climate Change: A VAR Model Analysis for Tunisia. Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, 7(2). Retrieved from https://qemsjournal.org/index.php/qems/article/view/4550

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