Implementation of Exponential Smoothing in Forecasting the Export Value Price of Oil and Gas in Indonesia

Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.; Rusli Rusli; Nachnoer Arss; Alok Kumar Panday

doi:10.35877/454RI.qems1022

Authors

Ansari Saleh Ahmar Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Abdul Rahman Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Rusli Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Nachnoer Arss School of Geography, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
Alok Kumar Panday Economics Centre for Integrated and Rural Development, Banaras Hindu University, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.qems1022

Keywords:

forecasting; export value price; oil and gas; exponential smoothing

Abstract

This study aims to predict the value of oil and gas export prices in Indonesia using exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing was applied because the data analysis revealed that the data consisted of trends and seasonal components. This study uses secondary data obtained from the website of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia, covering the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia every month from January 2010 to March 2022. The study obtained the exponential smoothing parameters, including ? = 0.5153984, ? = 0.06410119, and g = 0.7137603, with a seasonal length of L = 12. The forecast for the next five periods in millions of US$: April 2022 (1111.765), May 2022 (1250.465), June 2022 (1405.016), July 2022 (1447.510), and August 2022 (1452.984).