ARDL-Based Investigation of the Relationship between Monetary Policy and Inflation Mitigation

Hassan Ali Osman Fatur; Abdalla bin Mubarak Dawwas; Abdelgalal Osman Idris Abaker; Sami Elsir Ahmed Mohamed

doi:10.35877/454RI.asci4206

Authors

Hassan Ali Osman Fatur Department of Economic, Faculty of Economic and Commercial Studies, University of Nyala, Sudan
Abdalla bin Mubarak Dawwas Department of Adminstration Science, Applied College, Khamis Mushait, King Khalid University, Saudi Arabia
Abdelgalal Osman Idris Abaker Department of Adminstration Science, Applied College, Khamis Mushait, King Khalid University, Saudi Arabia
Sami Elsir Ahmed Mohamed Department of Adminstration Science, Applied College, Khamis Mushait, King Khalid University, Saudi Arabia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.asci4206

Keywords:

Auto-regressive Model; Inflation; Monetary policy

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the efficiency of monetary policy in reducing inflation rates in Sudan for the years 2000 - 2022. The data of the study were collected from the Central Bank of Sudan and the Central Bureau of Statistics. To estimate the relationship between the variables, the study used statistical methods and econometric tools, including co integration error correction, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. According to the results, there is a cointegration connection between the variables, and the variables are first order integrated. It was concluded that the estimated model is significant, and therefore it can be used to forecast, and that inflation is inversely related to both the exchange rate and the cost of financing, while the inflation is directly related to both bank credit and the money supply. To control inflation and stabilize exchange rates, a contractionary monetary policy was recommended